Tracking Los Angeles County, California
Population 2007: 10.27 million
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:288
09/30/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:175
01/2007: 36,715 (6,805)____01/2006: 27,732 (7,309)
02/2007: 41,251 (6,300)____02/2006: 29,420 (7,089)
03/2007: 42,057 (8,353)___03/2006: 31,819 (10,805)
04/2007: 45,918 (7,225)____04/2006: 34,032 (9,284)
05/2007: 52,198 (7,426)____05/2006: 37,847 (10,714)
06/2007: 52,769 (7,580)____06/2006: 42,317 (11,234)
07/2007: 54,166 (6,809)____07/2006: 45,315 (8,844)
08/2007: 57,432 (6,647)____08/2006: 46,781 (10,140)
09/2007: 58,973 (4,361)____09/2006: 47,369 (8,636)
10/2007: 58,731 (4,368)____10/2006: 45,780 (8,451)
11/2007: 59,108 (4,468)____11/2006: 43,103 (8,274)
12/2007: 53,475 (4,430)____12/2006: 37,165 (8,479)
Population 2008: 10.36 million
01/11/2008 Listing per population ratio 1:196
05/15/2008 Listing per population ratio 1:192
01/11: 52,619
01/31: 53,722 (3,398)___01/2007: 36,715 (6,805)
02/29: 53,520 (3,468)___02/2007: 41,251 (6,300)
03/31: 54,290 (4,263)___03/2007: 42,057 (8,353)
04/30: 54,098 (5,016)___04/2007: 45,918 (7,225)
05/31: 53,216 (5,445)___05/2007: 52,198 (7,426)
06/30: 53,058 (5,678)___06/2007: 52,769 (7,580)
07/31: 51,906 (6,592)___07/2007: 54,166 (6,809)
08/31: 50,124 (6,138)___08/2007: 57,432 (6,647)
09/30: 48,113 (xxxxx)___09/2007: 58,973 (4,361)
Inventory numbers are listed first followed by sales figures in parenthesis, with corresponding inventory and sales information from prior year to the right. Inventory include SFR, Condos, MFR, and land parcels, data obtained from ZipRealty. Sales include new and resale homes from DataQuickNews.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
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23 comments:
Looks like a few of our sellers have hunkered down for the winter, but not that many, as we're still over (way over) 50k, excluding all the soon-to-be foreclosures - the "Spring Bounce" in inventory (not sales, which will continue to stagnate at these prices) will be interesting to see!
But LA is different....
oh - oops, i forgot to change my calendar. Its jan. 2008 - not jan. 2007.....nevermind!
My what a big number you are throwing around for Feb. ...or is it June already.
Looks like the LA number is out:
In Los Angeles, only 4,430 homes were sold in December, down 48% from the previous year. And prices fell 11% to an average $470,000.
http://www.forbes.com/business/2008/02/05/hollywood-economy-housing-biz-media-cz_dp_0206realestate.html
oops never mind, that was for December not January. never mind!
Sales should pick up now that the super bowl is over, hehe
Already a few thousand more listings... Spring will be UG-LY...
15.8 months of inventory and everything is pointing to slower YOY sales.
We'll see relocations out of the most overpriced bubble markets. My company is sending out to TX, CO, and a few others. But mostly where homes are at about 2.5X P/I for our employees. Not the crazy 10X+ of the bubble markets
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Nobody HAS to buy but there are many who HAVE to sell. A sure formula for lower prices.
Well, not to be un-PC, but there are a few who have to buy - in particular, guys with wives who want to nest or keep up with the Joneses, right freaking now, and who don't have the brains and/or stones to show the one making the decisions the numbers until she figures it out.
Jimatlaw,
Well, my wife and I don't HAVE to buy, but we do have in mind the price we are willing to pay. Prices are getting to be in our range, so we're looking. If we find our dream home we'll buy. If not, we have the luxury of knowing that prices are only going to get better.
I have to say, it's ROUGH out there for homeowners. Anybody who says there isn't a serious crash going on is dreaming.
I've seen whole neighborhoods where every other house is up for sale. I've seen quite a few houses that were just left - keys turned in and just vacated.
Fascinating anon - I hope you'll return and reply, I'm really curious about the psychology here.
If you think the market is crashing, as you indicate you do, and that prices will continue to fall, why would you buy something now that you can rent for a year or two now and then buy later, for much, much less?
If the house you buy today will be hundreds of thousands of dollars less in a year or two, what is the value that you will get from owning now rather than in 2010 that is worth hundreds of thousands of dollars? I just can't figure it, and I really want to know.
There are some diamonds (Ugly ones out there, however you better be patient, watch and listen. Right now, there are greedy realtors listing houses. They will only let the house go if the buyers come directly to them. Aside from obvious Fraud over the past several years, professionalism in the real estate market has reached a low. If you plan to buy in LA, do your homework and go directly to the listing agent. If you dig hard and do your homework you can find foreclosed homes for almost 50% off the peek. Granted these homes are not the nice ones. There are a lot of homes for sale, foreclosures are not always your friend. If you can afford it, but can't afford to fix it, don't buy it.
Unfortunately Uncle Sam and the Fed will clean up the foreclosure mess. Prices in non-beach communities will remain at a minimum 6-8 times the median income range (DINKS will strive). At least the homes you would be willing to live in and fix.
Remember SoCal has, no snow, little rain, nice weather, relatively close commutes, little need for climate controls, etc........
Transplanted Ohian.
Redondo Beach
JD
If you can put 20 down, have at least 10 left, can live in it 5 years, you'll be alright.
Anon 4:51 said: If you can put 20 down, have at least 10 left, can live in it 5 years, you'll be alright.
Suffice it to say that many disagree - prices could easily decline another 30% or more over the next several years (at least another 30% is required to revert to the mean, and even that assumes that we don't overcorrect, which is more typical).
None of the factors you cite (sunshine, etc.) are things that are different now than they were in 1999, or 1996, and thus no reason why the price/income relationship will not revert to the mean for the area - prices tripled, incomes did not. You are basically just taking the Realtor position that "things are different this time" and that notwithstanding incomes or historical norms, we've now hit a "permanently high plateau," with no basis in the fundamental economic factors. Enjoy that Kool Aid.
In reality, in 5 years, even if houses started appreciating again for the last year or two, you could still be waaay underwater at the end of year 5. And compared to where you'd be if you saved thousands a month by renting in the interim, and then bought anywhere near the real bottom, you'd not only be underwater but short tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash.
jimatlaw...
Posting "anon" was easier, but I don't want to be misrepresented (the comments from 4/12/2008 4:51 PM, were not mine).
In response to your questions regarding why my wife and I are looking now rather than waiting for homes to fall further - we are purchasing a home as a long term investment, and a place to raise our children, NOT to flip or use as a short term investment. Therefore, we do not desire to try and catch the knife before it hits the floor. We merely wanted homes to be affordable, and they are finally getting to be that way. 10 years from now (at least) when we decide to move again, our home will regain equity once again. So for us, now is the time to buy. Could we wait another year or two and buy a home for 50-100k less? Sure, but waiting to put my wife and children in a neighborhood and school that is safe(er) and comfortable, just so I can try to catch the market at the bottom isn't worth it.
Interesting point of view Anthony, and yes, I didn't think 4:51 was you since they didn't address the real question.
I guess personally, I tend to think I can be just as safe and comfortable renting, but different strokes as they say! Good luck finding your dream place - look hard, there may be a few deals to be found, esp. if you're willing to pick up an abused foreclosure. :-)
JimAtLaw...
Thanks! We're looking for a home, but make no mistake we're not going to buy a home with an attitude that we HAVE to buy. But if our dream home is in our range, we're not going to wait.
I have to say, it's ROUGH out here. We're looking to get out of the city (Burbank, Glendale, Valencia, Corona, Fontana, etc), and the devastation is obvious. It's also obvious the homeowners who had no businesses buying the homes they're in; pools that they couldn't afford to keep water in, extended large families living in homes that are huge, but too small to hold all the grandparents, cousins, friends, etc. Beautiful and ornate homes furnished with patio furniture. It's really, really sad.
Sooo many houses aren't being listed on the MLS, so a 5% drop in the total number of houses on the market isn't terrible significant.
Still waiting and watching until 2011 for the market to bottom.
I'm seeing a few houses here and there in L.A. that show up as "sold in the last 3 months" on Redfin but they never turned up on my twice daily check.
Pocket listings...you betcha!
Sooo many houses aren't being listed on the MLS, so a 5% drop in the total number of houses on the market isn't terrible significant.
There are multiple both where I live and where I wish to buy. Its a weird phenomenon to watch unlisted inventory for sale. Others have just given up and are waiting until they're kicked out. Some expect to garner 15+ months of savings!
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Here's where I sound like a wide-eyed optimist and a party pooper...
I wanted this bubble to burst because if the average household income is around $55k and the average home is in the mid-$500k range, it wasn't fair for flippers and interest-only buyers to artificially drive up the market. HOWEVER, I didn't want the bubble to burst because fuel costs are so high that people can't afford to commute, or for massive losses in jobs and interest-only resets to completely obliterate some communities. As I've stated before, I've been looking for a home because prices have finally gotten down to our range. But...the devastation is downright depressing! We're seeing homes and whole communities that people put their hearts and souls into sold off to the highest bidder...and nobody is buying. Bedrooms with children's pictures still hanging - one still haunts me of a girl in her prom dress. You can buy these properties, but when you see things like that you realize THESE ARE REAL PEOPLE LOSING THEIR HOMES.
I will be grateful that homes are finally coming down to a reasonable range, and that my family and I can now partake in the "American Dream". But no, I won't be popping popcorn and kicking my feet up to enjoy someone else's tragedy, no matter how foolish they were to reach for the brass ring - some security and stability for their children, and came up short.
JimAtLaw...
Well, we found a house that we loved - surrounded by palm trees, fruit trees, grape ivy's covering the back wall. Swimming pool, 4 BR/3BA for the right price...
Couldn't pass the roof inspection.
So now, we're putting our home buying on hold. We've literally looked at 100 houses, and the majority of them were in such bad shape we wouldn't even consider living there. Everything I read indicates it's going to get much, much worse (or better for us!) in the next year or two.
So, like you, we wait.
So, is this blog dead now? I guess, with our economy in the tank, the real estate market is all peaches and cream?
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